Projected trends of soil organic carbon stocks in Meghalaya state of Northeast Himalayas, India. Implications for a policy perspective

Abstract Agricultural and forestry activities can affect soil organic carbon (SOC) levels and CO2 emissions from terrestrial ecosystems due to land use changes. In Northeast Himalayas, studies on the effects of forest conversion to temporary agricultural lands (jhum) on the loss of SOC and soil quality degradation have received the attention of policy makers and scientific research. Presently, local communities are now oriented towards the settled plantations systems with modern cash crops such as tea and rubber, that could act as potential SOC sinks. However, no information on SOC dynamics and simulation studies after land-use change from temporary agricultural lands (jhum) to settled cultivations and under climate change (CC) conditions are available for the Meghalaya state. Applying the RothC model, we focused on four different scenarios including the conversion from jhum to settled cultivation (rubber plantations and tea gardens), as well as continuous jhum cultivation and jhum to jhum with a period of secondary succession. Simulations under CC conditions indicated that SOC stocks significantly increased by 1.20 t C ha−1 yr−1 in tea gardens compared to rubber and jhum scenarios. Conversely, SOC stocks slightly decreased by 0.07 t C ha−1 yr−1 in rubber plantations, while the regrowth of a natural vegetation cover as secondary succession following the abandonment of the jhum fields, showed a lower SOC decrease (0.18 t C ha−1 yr−1) compared to the continuous jhum cultivation (0.24 t C ha−1 yr−1). Thus, for CC mitigation in a policy perspective, tea gardens could represent the best land use to store increasing amounts of SOC in the long-term perspective and optimize farmers' incomes, while in rubber plantations SOC storage is limited in time. Jhum cultivation can benefit in terms of productivity and profitability by extending the duration of the secondary succession period.