Estimation of radionuclide ingestion: Lessons from dose reconstruction for fallout from the Nevada Test Site

The United States conducted atmospheric testing of nuclear devices at the Nevada Test Site from 1951 through 1963. In 1979 the U.S. Department of Energy established the Off-Site Radiation Exposure Review Project to compile a data base related to health effects from nuclear testing and to reconstruct doses to public residing off of the Nevada Test Site. This project is the most comprehensive dose reconstruction project to date, and, since similar assessments are currently underway at several other locations within and outside the U.S., lessons from ORERP can be valuable. A major component of dose reconstruction is estimation of dose from radionuclide ingestion. The PATHWAY food-chain model was developed to estimate the amount of radionuclides ingested. For agricultural components of the human diet, PATHWAY predicts radionuclide concentrations and quantities ingested. To improve accuracy and model credibility, four components of model analysis were conducted: estimation of uncertainty in model predictions, estimation of sensitivity of model predictions to input parameters, and testing of model predictions against independent data (validation), and comparing predictions from PATHWAY with those from other models. These results identified strengths and weaknesses in the model and aided in establishing the confidence associated with model prediction, which is a critical component risk assessment and dose reconstruction. For fallout from the Nevada Test Site, by far, the largest internal doses were received by the thyroid. However, the predicted number of fatal cancers from ingestion dose was generally much smaller than the number predicted from external dose. The number of fatal cancers predicted from ingestion dose was also orders of magnitude below the normal projected cancer rate. Several lessons were learned during the study that are relevant to other dose reconstruction efforts.