A Review of the Status of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Building-stock Energy Models

Building-Stock Energy Models (BSEMs) are emerging as a powerful tool for cities and regions seeking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the effects of changing climates for their populations. The potential influence of such model results coupled with the scale and complexity of the environments they aim to represent means it is essential to understand their limitations. This study undertakes a systematic review of the literature relating to such models and finds that in only a very small proportion of studies are model uncertainties even considered. This fundamental flaw is due to the computational demands of exploring the output space of such complex models. A more detailed assessment was then undertaken of the identified studies in which uncertainty analysis (UA) and sensitivity analysis (SA) had been applied to BSEMs. The adequacy of the applied methods is discussed, and recommendations proposed for the application of best practice techniques based on the underlying form of the model.