Modeling landscape sustainability in the oil producing Niger delta area of Nigeria

Abstract This paper models landscape sustainability in the oil-producing Niger Delta area of Nigeria. Simon decision making cycle (intelligence-design-choice) was used to examine landscape sustainability planning issues. This approach involves three levels of application namely intelligence, design, and choice. Probability topic model was used in R software to identify the key problems in the Niger Delta area as (1) oil spillage impacts on water/land use (landscape capital) and (2) militancy (vandalism) and leadership (planning). These problems significantly, affect the landscape capital in the Niger Delta area. System dynamic simulation was applied to evaluate landscape capital under different scenarios of vandalism and different levels of revenue allocation. The study found that the greatest landscape capital can be achieved in 18.25 years if the revenue allocation to the Niger Delta oil producing states is increased from the current level of 13 percent to 21 percent. These results are consistent with UNEP's report that highlights oil spillages in the Niger Delta area as affecting landscape sustainability in the area.