Discrepancies between observed and predicted growth stages in wheat
1997
A model to predict wheat growth stage is briefly described. It
is based on prediction of the number of emerged leaves and the final number of leaves on the main shoot, and
the co-ordination between leaf emergence and apex development, including stem elongation. The input
variables are daily maximum and minimum temperatures, date of sowing and site latitude, from
which thermal time, vernalization and daylength are calculated. Selected growth stages were predicted for six sites in each of three
growing seasons. The differences between observations made by independent observers and predictions were
mostly 7 days or less but in three site–season combinations the average difference was >10
days. Observer errors were implicated and examined, but it is concluded that the prediction scheme
must also have been partly responsible for the discrepancies.
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