Is PES stopping deforestation or is it just shifting it

•Results indicate a negligible direct impact of PES on deforestation in SBP areas as changes indeforestation rates before and after PES implementation are only low. •Overall, annual net deforestation in areas with PES is lower than in reference areas without PES. •However, we identified a positive spill-over effect in buffer zones as deforestation rates therehave decreased after PES implementation. •Accounting for (positive) spill-over or (negative) leakage effects proves crucial when assessing landuse policy instruments.