Interval prediction of short-term traffic speed with limited data input: Application of fuzzy-grey combined prediction model

Abstract Short-term traffic speed prediction, including level and interval prediction, is a key component of proactive traffic control in the intelligent transportation systems (ITS). In particular, predicting intervals may provide traffic managers with more useful information for making reasonable decisions than predicting traffic levels. In this study, a combined model (FIG-GARM) of fuzzy information granulation (FIG) and grey autoregressive model (GARM) is proposed for the prediction interval (PI) of traffic speed. In order to investigate the performance of the FIG-GARM model, using real-world traffic speed data collected from an urban freeway in Edmonton, Canada, and the proposed FIG-GARM model is compared with the interval-grey model first order single variable (GM (1,1)), FIG-GM (1,1), and interval-GARM for PI of traffic speed. The results show that the FIG-GARM model can generate workable PI of the traffic speed, proving the validity of the proposed model. In addition, the PI of traffic speed obtained by FIG-GARM model has higher prediction interval coverage probability (PICP), narrower width interval (WI), and higher index P, which can provide decision support for the robust and accurate prediction of intelligent transportation systems.