The Development and Evaluation of a Statistical–Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance Tool

AbstractThe National Hurricane Center (NHC) has stated that guidance on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is an operational forecast improvement need, particularly since numerical weather prediction models produce TC-like features and operationally required forecast lead times recently have increased. Using previously defined criteria for TC genesis in global models, this study bias corrects TC genesis forecasts from global models using multiple logistic regression. The derived regression equations provide 48- and 120-h probabilistic genesis forecasts for each TC genesis event that occurs in the Environment Canada Global Environmental Multiscale Model (CMC), the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), and the Met Office's global model (UKMET). Results show select global model output variables are good discriminators between successful and unsuccessful TC genesis forecasts. Independent verification of the regression-based probabilistic genesis forecasts during 2014 and 2015 are presented. Brier scores and reliabili...