Research on the Large-Scale Development of Prefabricated Buildings Using System Dynamics

Due to the advantages of high production efficiency, low artificial demand, resource conservation and reduction of environmental pollution, prefabricated buildings have been vigorously promoted in recent years, however, the proportion and scale of which in China are still low, which is far lower than the goal proposed by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development that the proportion of prefabricated buildings should account for more than 15% of the newly built buildings in the country before 2020. Adopting the theory of system dynamics theory, this paper first divided the large-scale development of prefabricated buildings into four subsystems: policy, technology, macro economy and market. Then this paper analyzed the inherent interactions between components of each subsystem. The system dynamics model was established to identify the key influencing factors. Through a qualitative analysis on the positive and negative feedback loops of the system, this paper gave some corresponding suggestions expected to have certain reference value for the formulation of various policies, regulations and safeguard measures in the process of promoting the large-scale development of prefabricated buildings.