Forecasting peak electricity demand for Los Angeles considering higher air temperatures due to climate change

Abstract Los Angeles County (LAC) is a large urbanized region with 9.7 million residents (as of 2010) and aging infrastructure. Population forecasts indicate that LAC will become home to an additional 1.2–3.1 million residents through 2060. Additionally, climate forecasts based upon representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicate that average air temperatures will increase by 1–4 °C (2–7 °F) in the region. Both of these factors are expected to result in higher summertime peak electricity demand due to growth in the number of buildings, the percentage of installed air conditioners (ACs), and the additional cooling load on those air conditioners. In order to understand potential power reliability issues, and support infrastructure planning efforts, a long-term peak demand forecast was developed using hourly residential and commercial (RC this could offset some of the projected increases in peak demand. Additionally, development of shared wall, multi-family dwelling units could enable population growth of up to 3 million people without increasing peak demand.