Factors associated with progression to critical illness in 28 days among COVID-19 patients: results from a tertiary care hospital in Istanbul, Turkey

Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) quickly spread worldwide to become a pandemic. This study aimed to define the predictors of critical illness development within 28 days postadmission. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study including 477 PCR-positive COVID-19 patients admitted to a tertiary care hospital in Istanbul from March 12 to May 12, 2020. The development of critical illness, e.g., invasive mechanical ventilation and/or death, was followed for a period of 28 days postadmission. Demographic characteristics, number of comorbidities, illness severity at admission defined by the WHO scale, vital signs, laboratory findings and period of admission to the hospital were independent variables. Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed, and the C-index was calculated. Results The median (IQR) age of the cohort was 55.0 (44.0-67.0) years, and 50.1% were male. The most common presenting symptoms were cough, dyspnea and fatigue. Overall, 65.2% of the patients had at least one comorbidity. Hydroxychloroquine was given to 99.2% of the patients. Critical illness developed in 45 (9.4%; 95% CI: 7.0%-12.4%) patients. In the multivariable analysis, age (HR: 1.05, p<0.001), number of comorbidities (HR: 1.33, p=0.02), procalcitonin ≥0.25 μg/L (HR: 2.12, p=0.03) and LDH ≥350 U/L (HR: 2.04, p=0.03) were independently associated with critical illness development. The WHO scale on admission was the strongest predictor of critical illness (HR: 4.15, p<0.001). Prognosis improved within the study period (p<0.05). The C-index of the model was 0.92. Conclusions Age, comorbidity number, WHO scale, LDH and procalcitonin were independently associated with critical illness development. Mortality from COVID-19 seems to be decreasing as the pandemic advances.