PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF PORT OPERABILITY UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Harbors are strategic infrastructures within the local, regional and global economy. The objective of a harbor is to guarantee the safety, serviceability and exploitation of all activities, for each element, and in all project phases. Within this context, Level III Verification Method is recommended for the probabilistic evaluation of failure modes and operational stoppage modes (downtime) of maritime structures; and the Spanish Recommendations for Maritime Structures (ROM) proposes a simulation method based on the Monte Carlo technique. On the other hand, ports are susceptible to impacts from climate change driven processes, like sea level rise (SLR) or changes in waves and storm surges. These impacts could reduce the functionality of ports and therefore negatively affect the effectiveness of supply chain network. In this work, we focus on a very long-term probabilistic assessment of the port operability due to wave agitation inside the port including the potential effects of climate change.