Seasonal demography of the threatened Montevideo Redbelly Toad (Melanophryniscus montevidensis) in a protected area of Uruguay

Estimates of demographic parameters are scarce for Neotropical amphibians, a concerning fact because this region has the highest proportion of threatened amphibians in the world. We conducted a 3-year study where we applied a robust capture–mark–recapture design to assess the importance of breeding and non-breeding activity patterns over the survival rates, detection probabilities, and abundances of the Montevideo Redbelly Toad (Melanophryniscus montevidensis (Philippi, 1902)), a threatened anuran from Uruguay. The best models grouped seasons into hot and cold periods cyclically, were state-dependent in transition probabilities, and were time-dependent in detection probabilities for adults, but had constant detection probabilities for juveniles. Averaged estimates suggest a high survivorship rate during cold seasons (above 80%), but lower probabilities (below 60%) during hot seasons, especially for males. Analogously, the non-breeding activity had a seasonal pattern, with higher activity during spring and...