Herd Immunity at What Price? Using Auctions to Estimate what University Students Must be Paid to Get the Flu Vaccine

Abstract There is significant resistance to vaccinations. Fewer than half of adults get a flu shot in the United States in a typical year, and a large minority of Americans say they will not get vaccinated against COVID-19. This resistance to vaccines creates challenges for both public health and the economy. The academic literature needs to consider potential policy solutions that might increase vaccination rates. In this study, we use experimental auctions to estimate how much university students need to be paid in exchange for agreeing to get a flu shot. These were real auctions where winners received compensation to get the flu shot. As found in prior research, the perceived stakes of such auctions incentivize participants to estimate the price at which they would engage in the auctioned behavior – in this instance, receiving a flu shot. We find that 50% require less than $1, and an additional 30% would get vaccinated for a payment of $20 or less. We also use a tobit regression to estimate bids as a function of participants’ demographic characteristics. If low levels of compensation increase vaccination rates, this has significant public health implications. The government may be able to achieve higher vaccination rates at a relatively low cost, particularly in comparison with the economic harms caused by illness. This study demonstrates that experimental auctions may be useful for estimating how much a larger, more representative sample would need to be paid in exchange for agreeing to receive flu or COVID-19 vaccinations.