A framework for modelling the risks of climate-change impacts on Australian coasts

This chapter describes a framework that integrates geomorphological and engineering understanding of coastal behaviour in a way that can be incorporated into coastal management decisions. It describes probabilistic assessment of a range of possible outcomes and their uncertainties, which can provide planners with greater flexibility than more deterministic approaches. Many studies of the impact of sea-level rise on shorelines adopt a deterministic approach, particularly based on the Bruun Rule, by which a possible shoreline position for some time in the future is portrayed on a map. The repeated beach surveys at Narrabeen Beach represent an adequate dataset against which to compare simulation results.