Wachtlijstontwikkelingen in de zorg voor verstandelijk gehandicapten - nieuwe scenario's

This report presents an update of model simulation results for application to the waiting list for residential care of the mentally disabled in the Netherlands. The update makes use of recently collected data to provide calculations based on new assumptions with respect to the waiting list definition, specification of the outflow of the waiting list and figures denoting the capacity of institutions for residential care. Based upon these assumptions, four new scenarios, each differing in its prediction of the future growth in an institution's capacity for residential care, have been formulated. The 'Demographic Development' scenario shows that a growth of 0.33% per year in the number of residential homes/institutions will not be sufficient for stabilising the waiting list. In the other scenarios, more places are created. The waiting list in 2003 is then about 20% lower in the 'Coalition Agreement 1998' scenario than in the 'Demographic Development' scenario. In the 'Intensify-1' and -'2' scenarios, the waiting list in 2003 shows respective drops of 50% and 60%, compared to the 'Demographic Development' scenario; the average waiting time is 50-60% lower than in the 'Demographic Development' scenario. A comparison was also made to the reference scenario in the November 1999 report with respect to the abovementioned assumptions (2) and (3). Applying the new information on waiting-list outflow to the reference scenario of the model has a negative effect on waiting list development because part of the outflow to 'other' types of care actually was to (semi) institutional care. Although the effect of two sources of uncertainty (specification of the outflow and the capacity in the period 1996-1998) has been lessened with respect to that noted in the November 1999 report, other sources of uncertainty named in that report are still effective (e.g. data from the waiting list registration and the semi-institutional registration).