Agent-based modeling and simulation of edible fungi growers' adoption behavior towards fungal chaff recycling technology

Abstract CONTEXT Edible fungus is considered a green, recyclable, and highly-efficient industry, which prolongs energy flow and improves the effectiveness of resource utilization. However, the disposal of post-harvest waste is a thorny problem. OBJECTIVE To explore the characteristics and regular technology diffusion patterns of fungal chaff recycling technology, this study modeled and simulated edible fungi growers' adoption behavior towards recycling technology based on the combination of Logit regression and Agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS). METHODS The main factors affecting the technology adoption behavior of edible fungi growers were identified, and an agent-based model was constructed to simulate farmers' adoption behavior. Then, a farmer investigation was conducted in Beijing to determine the parameters in the simulation model. Finally, four scenarios were designed and the corresponding simulation experiments were performed to simulate growers' adoption behavior for recycling technologies in different situations. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The results revealed that the main influencing factors were the production scale, farmers' perceived ease of use and perceived risk, others' recommendations, and social network communication. At the current adoption rate, technology diffusion presented an overall attenuation trend under the effect of individual learning and social norms. The final adoption rate of recycling technology increased along with the increment of initial adopters, yet the elastic efficiency was reduced if the increase was too excessive. The optimal increase in the number of initial adopters of the fungal chaff recycling technology was 10%, and the corresponding distribution mode for new initial adopters should be randomly distributed. Social networks had two-sided effects on technology promotion and should be expanded within a certain extent. SIGNIFICANCE These research findings provide useful suggestions and measures to improve the promotion performance of recycling technology.