Model Simulation of Anthropogenic Impacts on the Near Future Climate

The purpose of this study is to estimate the effects of anthropogenic aerosol and other anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gases (GHGs) on global and regional climate. Anthropogenic aerosol loadings have substantially increased since preindustrial times; however, the global mean anthropogenic aerosol loading has experienced a downward trend owing to pollution control measures. I investigate climate in the near future when anthropogenic aerosol decreases and GHGs increase using earth system model simulations. Temperature increase is caused by GHG increase and anthropogenic aerosol decrease, because a reduction in aerosols may weaken their cooling effect. Regionally, climate impacts can be much larger than the global mean owing to the change of anthropogenic aerosol. The largest anthropogenic aerosol-driven climate changes occur in the East Asia region.