Does caste-ethnicity matter in fertility transition? An analysis of Nepalese data.

Within the Nepal Fertility Family Planning and Health Survey (NFFHS 1991) a total of 25384 ever married women 15-49 years old from 24745 households were interviewed in a nationally representative sample survey. The age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) rose slowly to peak in the 25-29 year age group and gradually tapering off in older age groups. Comparison of the 1976 Nepal Fertility Survey with the NFFHS of 1991 indicates that during this 15-year period ASFR declined. The decline was the most pronounced in the 15-19 age group followed by the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups. The decline in total fertility was approximately 1.13 children per woman. The factors accounting for this decline were the increasing age at marriage and more extensive education. The literacy rate for women increased from about 12% in 1981 to 25% in 1991. The contraceptive prevalence rate also increased from around 15% in 1981 to 24% in 1991. The age-specific marital fertility rate (ASMFR) among caste and ethnic groups was the same with most births occurring in the 20-29 age group. The national total marital fertility rate (TMFR) was estimated to be 6.3 with wide variations: it was the lowest for the Newars (4.89) and the highest for the Rais (7.5). The mean number of children ever born (CEB) to currently married women was 3.5. On the average a woman bears 6.1 children by the age of 45-49 in Nepal. Three separate analyses of variance of CEB were also conducted: 1) all women; 2) women ages 15-29; and 3) women ages 30-49. The Brahmin and Tharu women had the lowest mean parity (3.25) while the highest mean parity was associated with the Rai and Tamang women (3.84). Buddhists and Muslims had slightly lower parity than Hindus. Urban women bore one-fourth fewer children than their rural counterparts. Contraceptive use was related to higher mean parity because women adopted contraceptive use only after achieving the desired family size. The national fertility decline was corroborated here from a TFR of 6.3 in 1976 to 5.2 in 1991.