Changes in PM 2.5 concentrations and their sources in the US from 1990 to 2010

Abstract. Significant reductions of emissions of SO2, NOx, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and primary particulate matter (PM) took place in the US from 1990 to 2010. We evaluate here our understanding of the links between these emissions changes and corresponding changes in concentrations and health outcomes using a chemical transport model, the Particulate Matter Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (PMCAMx) with the Particle Source Apportionment Algorithm (PSAT). Results for 1990, 2001 and 2010 are presented. The reductions in SO2 emissions (64 %, mainly from electric generating units) during these 20 years have dominated the reductions in PM2.5 leading to a 45 % reduction in sulfate levels. The predicted sulfate reductions are in excellent agreement with the available measurements. Also, the reductions in elemental carbon (EC) emissions (mainly from transportation) have led to a 30 % reduction of EC concentrations. The most important source of organic aerosol (OA) through the years according to PMCAMx is biomass burning, followed by biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA). OA from on-road transport has been reduced by more than a factor of three. On the other hand, changes in biomass burning OA and biogenic SOA have been modest. In 1990, about half of the US population was exposed to annual-average PM2.5 concentrations above 20 μg m−3, but by 2010 this fraction had dropped to practically zero. The predicted changes in concentrations are evaluated against the observed changes for 1990, 2001, and 2010, in order to understand if the model represents reasonably well the corresponding processes caused by the changes in emissions.