Seasonal sea‐level forecasts by canonical correlation analysis—an operational scheme for the U.S.‐affiliated Pacific Islands

The objective of this study is to develop an operational canonical correlation analysis (CCA) statistical model for sea-level forecasts in the U. S.-affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) with lead times of several months or longer. The El Ni˜ no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle and the sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean are taken as the primary factors in modulating sea-level variability on the seasonal time scales. Observations revealed that the sea-level variations in the USAPI are sensitive to ENSO cycle with low sea level during El Ni˜