Global Scenarios for Light Duty Vehicles to 2050: CO 2eq Emissions and Impacts on Oil Consumption

Light duty vehicles (LDV) contribute about 45% of the greenhouse gas emissions of the whole transport sector. We have developed a global scenario for LDVs covering 10 world regions with the aim to lower global LDV CO 2eq emissions by 25% in 2050 compared to 1990. The approach takes into account a vast range of technical measures to reduce energy consumption of vehicles, but also considers the dramatic increase in vehicle ownership and annual mileage driven in third world countries. Major parameters were: vehicle technology, alternative fuels, changes in sales of vehicle size (segment split) and changes in vehicle kilometre travelled (modal split). The scenario presumes a high share of renewable electricity available in the future. We show the effects on energy consumption, fossil fuel consumption, the use of alternative fuels and CO2 emissions.