A Conceptual Approach to the Development of Software Tools for the Analysis and Synthesis of Geophysical Monitoring Systems Models

Nowadays, the energy potential of mankind has begun to exceed the energy of some processes of natural origin, and the technology of application of powerful technical systems and complexes can play the role of a trigger for the manifestation of large-scale catastrophic phenomena. As known, there is a contradiction between the “goals” of man and nature, and according to the law of necessary diversity William Ashby, you can increase the efficiency of control in the system “nature-society” in two ways: the first—to reduce the diversity of the control object (environment) or increase the diversity of the control system—society. The main purpose of this study is the presentation of the conceptual approach to the development of software tools for the analysis and synthesis of a geophysical monitoring systems model. To achieve this goal, two approaches are proposed to describe the interaction “humanity—the environment”. The first approach is based on the use of “game principles”. The “game principle” of humanity and the environment can be described using a system of ordinary differential equations, pre-determined with the phase coordinates and “controls” of the players, as “control” affects the phase coordinates. At the heart of the second approach, the environment is considered as a system characterized by fluctuations under the influence of anthropogenic load. Depending on the level of external influence, the system either returns to equilibrium or as a result of increasing the amplitude of oscillations is destroyed and not restored, which is equivalent to a catastrophic state. The present paper substantiates the model of the geophysical monitoring system based on the Lagrange equations for an oscillatory system with two or more degrees of freedom in the “factor space”, and the model based on “game principles”. The authors also show the block diagram algorithm of the analysis and synthesis of geophysical monitoring systems models. Further development of this concept involves a computational experiment for a specific system using appropriate software tools.