A Study on Covid-19 Situation in Andhra Pradesh: Current Scenario and Projections

Aim: Andhra Pradesh (AP) has seen a 20 times rise in COVID-19 cases soon after unlock and now stood in top five worst-hit states in India The state which had 3,042 cases at the end of May, now has 69816 cases Nearly, 65,000 cases were registered in just one and half month The purpose of this study is to assess the current status of COVID-19 in Andhra Pradesh and to forecast the condition of future, which will help to strengthen management Methodology: AP daily health bulletin and Health, Medical and Family Welfare (HMFW) data are used for the estimation of the forecast from 25 March to 23 July 2020 The forecast data charts in Microsoft Excel are used to estimate the potential COVID-19 cases for the Andhra Pradesh State Results: Based on projected results, AP will cross 476534 cases by mid-September 2020 The proportion of positive cases out of tested samples in the state may go up to 30% The COVID-19 death toll in the state may cross the 5000 value In summary, the projection says that the increasing trend in COVID cases may continue a few months, while the death toll may be kept low with proper medical planning Conclusion: The current situation in AP has put officials in alert to bring down the growth of COVID cases Although several control measures are being taken by the government, still it needs to adapt intelligent strategies to better handle the pandemic © 2020, Radiance Research Academy All rights reserved