Direct Energy Rebound Effect of Family Cars: An Analysis Based on a Survey in Chang-Zhu-Tan City Group☆

Abstract The energy rebound effect can inevitably affect energy saving as a result of improving energy efficiency. This paper investigates the use of family cars in the Chang-Zhu-Tan City Group. Based on the RP data, this paper firstly estimates the direct energy rebound effect of family cars in 2014. Secondly, the paper estimates the direct rebound effect within the context of Chinese policy, and further explores the factors which may affect the probability of rebound effect less than or equal to 0 by the binary logistic model. The results indicate that firstly, the average direct rebound effect is -25.47% in 2014. Secondly, taking the use of family cars in 2014 as a baseline scenario, the average direct rebound effect becomes 13.98%, and 55.31% of the rebound effect is less than or equal 0 under a scenario in which fuel consumption achieves 5.0L/100km. Thirdly, five family characteristics are identified as the factors which can significantly affect the sign of the rebound effect.