Hydrological responses to rainfall variability and dam construction: a case study of the upper Senegal River basin

The understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamic of river systems is essential for developing sustainable water resource management plan. For the Senegal River, this subject is very complex according to the context of (1) transboundary basin, (2) several contrasted climatic zones (Guinea, South Sudanian, North Sudanian and Sahelian) with high rainfall variability and (3) high human pressures (dam construction and water uses). From 1954 to 2000, 80% (mean value) of the Senegal River flows recorded downstream part of the basin are provided by three majors tributaries (Bafing, Bakoye and Faleme) located in the upstream part. Then, in our study, this upper Senegal River basin was chosen in order to investigate the hydrological responses to rainfall variability and dam construction. Two nonparametric statistical methods, Mann–Kendall and Hubert test, were used to detect the long-term changes in the time series of precipitation and water discharge (1954–2000) at the annual and seasonal scales. The continuous wavelet transform (Morlet Wavelet) was employed to characterize the different mode in the water discharge variability. Flow duration curve and cumulative curve methods were used to assess the impact of dams on the hydrological regime of the Senegal River. Results showed that the Senegal River flows have been changing under the influence of both rainfall variation and dam construction. The long-term evolution of water discharge depend on long-term rainfall variability: The wet periods of the 1950s and 1960s correspond to periods of higher river flows, while the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s led to unprecedented river flows deficits. The new period, since 1994, show a high inter-annual variability of rainfall and discharge without clear trend. At seasonal scale, the results showed also a strong relationship between rainfall and runoff (R 2 > 0.8) resulting from alternating wet and dry seasons and rapid hydrological responses according to annual rainfall. Nevertheless, the observed flows during dry seasons highlighted the influence of water storage and restitution of infiltrated waters in soils and surficial formations during wet seasons. In the dry seasons, the water budget of the three upstream tributaries showed a water deficit at the downstream gauging station. This deficit was characterized by water loss to underlying aquifers and highlighted the influence of geological setting on water balance. However, in this context, water restitution during the dry season remained dependent on climatic zone and on the total annual rainfall volume during the previous wet season. The results have highlighted an impact of the Manantali dam previously obscured: The dam has no effect on the regulation of high river flows. That is what explains that since its construction in 1988, flooding of coastal cities, like Saint-louis, by seasonal river floods has not ceased. The flooding risk in coastal cities is not avoided, and the dams caused hyper-salinization of the Senegal lower estuary. The breach created in the coastal barrier of the Langue of Barbary in October 2003 promotes direct export of excess floodwater to the sea and reduces this risk of flooding in the delta area. But, this solution led to considerable loss of potential water resources, and the authors recommend a new water management plan with a global focus. However, this study shows the positives impacts of the two dams. They allow the availability of freshwater in order to support agricultural irrigation in the valley and delta zone, in particular during low flows periods.