Evaluation of development patterns based on water resources carrying capacity calculation model in pastoral area

As the natural barrier, the health situation of grassland is relate to the change of social and economic development. According the natural environment of low rainfall and high evaporation, a comprehensive calculation model is established for evaluating the development patterns based on water resources carrying capacity. In present year, the social and grassland carrying capacity of BAILINGM is in the overload situation and there is a wide variance among different administrative region. By designing five different development patterns, we can find that carrying out the most strict water resources management policy can solve the overload problem of grassland carrying capacity effectively and the B-2 is the best development pattern. This paper show that the calculation results can provide reliable information and guide for macroscopic water resources management in large watershed and administrative region.