Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Sustainable Development at the Regional Level: A Case Study in Medenine, South-East Tunisia

This paper applies multiple analytical and empirical methods to evaluate the sustainability impacts of climate change and prospective adaptation measures based on water harvesting techniques (WHTs) at the regional level. We developed a sustainability composite index (SCI) for an arid zone in Tunisia, specifically the south-eastern Province of Medenine. To quantify the SCI, a static computable general equilibrium model (CGE) was adapted to the region. To provide a database for the CGE model, we built a regional social accounting matrix (RSAM). A bottom-up approach was applied to build a regional supply and use matrix for the agricultural sector incorporating natural resources (land and water) as intermediate inputs. Our regional SAM included ten production factors, 18 production sectors producing 22 goods and services, two household types (urban and rural), one representative enterprise, two public sectors (central and regional administration), taxes accounts, two capital accounts (savings/investment and changes in stocks), the rest of the world and the rest of the country. We used the RSAM to calculate the regional GDP. Two simulations were run, focused on the 2030 time horizon from the baseline year of 2006: (i) declining natural capital due to the effects of climate change and (ii) implementation of a regional climate change adaptation strategy based on water harvesting technologies (WHTs). Scenario identification drew on previous research and was performed in close collaboration with regional stakeholders. Based on the outputs of the CGE model, the impacts of the two scenarios on the main regional economic indicators were analysed. Using multi-criteria analysis (MCA), we calculated an aggregated SCI for regional development. Results suggest that implementation of the regional climate change adaptation strategy would have positive impacts, but would be insufficient to maintain the SCI at its current level.