Just transition towards defossilised energy systems for developing economies: A case study of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT This article explores the transition to renewable energy for all purposes in developing countries. Ethiopia is chosen as a case study and is an exemplary of developing countries with comparable climatic and socioeconomic conditions. The techno-economic analysis of the transition is performed with the LUT Energy System Transition model, while the socio-economic aspects are examined in terms of greenhouse gas emissions reduction, improved energy services and job creation. Six scenarios were developed, which examine various policy constraints, such as greenhouse gas emission cost. The Best Policy Scenarios cost less than the Current Policy Scenarios and generate more job. The results of this research show that it is least costing, least greenhouse gas emitting and most job-rich to gradually transition Ethiopia’s energy system into one that is dominated by solar PV, complemented by wind energy and hydropower. The modelling outcome reveals that it is not only technically and economically possible to defossilise the Ethiopian energy system, but it is the least cost option with greatest societal welfare. This is a first of its kind study for the Ethiopian energy system from a long-term perspective.