The impact of urbanization and consumption patterns on China’s black carbon emissions based on input–output analysis and structural decomposition analysis

Urbanization in China has dramatically increased from 39.10 in 2002 to 58.52% in 2017. Studies have discussed the impacts of urbanization and its corresponding changes in consumption patterns on carbon dioxide emissions; however, little is known about their impacts on black carbon (BC). Therefore, we collected data on the BC emissions of various sectors to calculate the consumption-based BC emissions in China, and we used an input-output analysis (IOA) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to explore the impacts of urbanization and changes in consumption patterns on BC emissions from 2002 to 2017, focusing on sectoral BC emissions. The total BC emissions of various sectors first increased and then decreased. BC emissions increased from 1083.47 in 2002 to 2550.83 Gg in 2012. They were then reduced to 2478.63 Gg in 2017. Additionally, with the rise in the urbanization rate, household consumption BC emissions increased from 446.18 in 2002 to 1080.12 Gg in 2017. Urban consumption, rural consumption, and BC emission intensity were the three main contributing factors to household consumption BC emission changes. Transport, storage, postal, and telecommunications services (TSP); farming, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (FFA); and residential and other industries (RES) contributed the most to the urbanization-related BC emission increase. In particular, the TSP sector contributed the most to the BC emission increase because of the increasing TSP needs related to urbanization. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate mitigation policies for the TSP sector.