Et tu “Brute Force”? No! A Statistically Based Approach to Catastrophe Modeling

Large scale simulations of natural catastrophes such as hurricanes have been widely used since the 1980s to assess the expected losses from extreme events. A more direct statistical approach is described here that involves simulating only the events in the historical record and then fitting probability distributions to the impacts on a site specific basis. This approach eliminates the possibility of generating unrealistic events while employing the historical data in a coherent and logically consistent fashion.