A probabilistic model for indel evolution: differentiating insertions from deletions.

Insertions and deletions (indels) are common molecular evolutionary events. However, probabilistic models for indel evolution are under-developed due to their computational complexity. Here we introduce several improvements to indel modeling: (1) While previous models for indel evolution assumed that the rates and length distributions of insertions and deletions are equal, here we propose a richer model that explicitly distinguishes between the two; (2) We introduce numerous summary statistics that allow Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) based parameter estimation; (3) We develop a method to correct for biases introduced by alignment programs, when inferring indel parameters from empirical datasets; (4) Using a model-selection scheme we test whether the richer model better fits biological data compared to the simpler model. Our analyses suggest that both our inference scheme and the model-selection procedure achieve high accuracy on simulated data. We further demonstrate that our proposed richer model better fits a large number of empirical datasets and that, for the majority of these datasets, the deletion rate is higher than the insertion rate.