Listening to Inuit and Naskapi peoples in the eastern Canadian Subarctic: a quantitative comparison of local observations with gridded climate data

For Inuit and Naskapi living in the eastern Canadian Subarctic, local meteorological and environmental conditions (e.g., snow and ice cover extent, thickness, and duration) play a key role as they affect subsistence activities such as fishing, hunting, trapping, and harvesting. In this study, we first documented locally observed changes in meteorological and environmental conditions made by members of the Inuit communities of Kangiqsualujjuaq (Quebec) and Nain (Newfoundland and Labrador) and the Naskapi Nation of Kawawachikamach (Quebec). We then examined spatiotemporal trends in gridded meteorological variables, most notably air temperature and precipitation, publicly available online. We compared Naskapi and Inuit observations with meteorological variables using a novel statistical approach to answer the question: how do locally observed changes in meteorological and environmental conditions relate to spatiotemporal trends in gridded meteorological variables? We used an adapted consensus index to measure the level of agreement in participants’ observations and assess the efficacy and utility of converting qualitative statements into quantitative measures for use in statistical models. Our results indicate that all three communities observed changes in meteorological and environmental conditions and that our consensus indices appropriately translated community observations. Participants from all three communities agreed that winter air temperatures are warmer, that the quantity of snow is diminishing, that freeze-up occurs later in the fall, and that precipitation patterns are changing. In contrast to Kangiqsualujjuaq and Kawawachikamach, participants from Nain observed that summer air temperatures have cooled. Through the analysis of gridded meteorological variables, we identified increases in annual mean and seasonal air temperatures and in total annual precipitation, particularly between 1990 and 2009. When analyzing both community observations and spatiotemporal trends in gridded meteorological variables, we found consensus regarding subjective changes and quantitative changes in mean air temperature and total precipitation.