Общая экономика: алгоритм прогноза мировых экономических кризисов (на примере 2008 г.)

The crisis of 2008 was a surprise for both the neoclassical and the Marxist branches of economic science, which could not predict the exact timing of its onset. The crisis contributed to the revival of interest in the «Capital» of Marx, whose model can be brought into line with the modern level of natural sciences. General economy – a hierarchical multi-level model of the market economy – a significant «upgrade» of the «Capital» of Marx on the basis of the method of constructing the genome of biological species (in it the commodity is not a «cell» but a «DNA molecule») – explains the various micro- and macroeconomic processes in including crises. The model contains an algorithm for forecasting global crises. The crisis is the result of periodic overaccumulation of capital. Harbingers of absolute overaccumulation, or global crisis are investment growth, employment growth, lower investment growth rates, unemployment reduction, and wage growth. Such dynamics of the linkage of indicators was observed in 2003–2007. It serves as a basis for forecasting the crisis and developing an indicator of the danger of the crisis.