Extraction and Synoptical Analysis of heavy precipitation Generative patterns in Ardabil city

Research Aim: To create heavy precipitation, in addition to the surface water's moisture, requires the existence of a strong ascension factor of the upper atmosphere and the occurrence of heavy precipitation has been linked to the Synoptic patterns of the surface of the earth and the upper levels. The purpose of this research is to study the Synoptic ot the heavy precipitation of Ardebil city and extract its production patterns using a circular environmental approach. Research method: In this study, two data groups were used. The first baseline environmental data was the daily precipitation statistics of Ardebil station during the statistical period 1976-2015 and the second base includes atmospheric variables, which are obtained from the site (www.esrl.noaa.gov). These variables include sea level pressure maps, geo-potential heights of 500 hpa atmospheric levels, vibrations, relative humidity, map of omega, specific humidity levels of 500, zonal wind and meridian wind and precipitated water. The cluster analysis was performed on the maps of the sea level and the level of 500 hpa by integration Ward method and Euclidean distance, and four patterns for sea level pressure maps and four circulatory patterns were obtained for the level of 500 hpa. By applying the factor analysis method, a matrix with dimensions 11*30, whose rows and columns represent the number of cells and days, were created in the spss environment, and based on the combination of all factors, four patterns were extracted and synoptic maps in the Grads environment for representative days combined and the linear and polynomial trends of precipitation in Ardebil city were also interpreted in Excel. Findings: The results of the cluster analysis showed that in the mapping patterns of the sur face of the earth high pressure system of Northern Europe and the location of the region on the boundary between two different pressure systems (low pressure of Iraq and Azores high pressure) and (low pressure of north east of Iran and high pressure of Russia) and (high pressure of the sea The Caspian Sea and the low Pressure of Iraq and Saudi Arabia) caused disparity of pressure and irregularity in the map of the middle levels 500 hpa atmosphere of the Ardebil city in the vicinity of the Naveh (Syria's low elevation) and (Naveh of the Caspian Sea) and (Naveh of the West of Iraq) and (low elevation Turkey-north of the Black Sea) high divergence has caused ascent and congestion. Using Factor Analysis Method, Bartlett’s test was 65 percent and its significance level was less than 0.05, which indicated that the data was functional and the first three factors explained 82 percent of the variances. which was 43.77 percent, 17.12 percent and 17.74 percent, respectively, and its clustering showed that the level of landing in the transition zone and the severe cross compression caused ascent and unstable and in the level of 500 hpa in the proximity of the low elevation and the position in the Naveh axis, a high divergence zone and low convergence, the influence of cold air from the down Naveh to the area and the establishment of Blocking omega contributed to the continuity of precipitation and the role of nutritional water in the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, and the creation of climbing nuclei Suitable precipitated water and the maximum moisture content were effective in the occurrence of these precipitation. Also, analysis of the time series components of the daily precipitation parameter showed that precipitation in the city of Ardebil is increasing. Conclusion: The results of the research showed that heavy precipitation synoptic patterns in Ardebil city due to the location of the area in the forward direction Naveh and high divergence and the existence of effective low pressure and high pressure systems, has created a difference in pressure and instability in the region. To achieve better results, you can use the 700-hpa map.