Stability of Genomic Selection prediction models across ages and environments

Background A tree breeding program is characterized by long generation intervals which, over time, result in a much smaller number of breeding cycles when compared to annual crops. Moreover, most economically important traits in a tree-breeding program are quantitatively inherited, display low heritability and are expressed late in the life cycle. Genomic Selection (GS) is expected to be particularly valuable for tree species, leading to shorter generation intervals and improved genetic gain over time. The main factors that affect the accuracy of GS prediction models are the level of linkage disequilibrium (LD) in the training population, the training population size, the heritability of the trait and the number of QTL regulating its variation. However, it is yet largely unknown how stable prediction models are across environments and different ages. This knowledge is critical for tree breeders that wish to use genomic selection in their genetic improvement program. Here, we report the first assessment of the utility of genomic selection in a conifer species. We developed prediction models for growth traits measured at multiple sites, to evaluate the impact of genotype by environment interactions in their accuracy. Training populations were also measured over multiple ages and models were developed to assess their value in predicting breeding values later in the lifecycle.