Physical–biological coupling induced aggregation mechanism for the formation of high biomass red tides in low nutrient waters

Abstract Port Shelter is a semi-enclosed bay in northeast Hong Kong where high biomass red tides are observed to occur frequently in narrow bands along the local bathymetric isobars. Previous study showed that nutrients in the Bay are not high enough to support high biomass red tides. The hypothesis is that physical aggregation and vertical migration of dinoflagellates appear to be the driving mechanism to promote the formation of red tides in this area. To test this hypothesis, we used a high-resolution estuarine circulation model to simulate the near-shore water dynamics based on in situ measured temperature/salinity profiles, winds and tidal constitutes taken from a well-validated regional tidal model. The model results demonstrated that water convergence occurs in a narrow band along the west shore of Port Shelter under a combined effect of stratified tidal current and easterly or northeasterly wind. Using particles as dinoflagellate cells and giving diel vertical migration, the model results showed that the particles aggregate along the convergent zone. By tracking particles in the model predicted current field, we estimated that the physical–biological coupled processes induced aggregation of the particles could cause 20–45 times enhanced cell density in the convergent zone. This indicated that a high cell density red tide under these processes could be initialized without very high nutrients concentrations. This may explain why Port Shelter, a nutrient-poor Bay, is the hot spot for high biomass red tides in Hong Kong in the past 25 years. Our study explains why red tide occurrences are episodic events and shows the importance of taking the physical–biological aggregation mechanism into consideration in the projection of red tides for coastal management.