Looking in the rear-view mirror: bias and retrospective patterns in integrated, age-structured stock assessment models

FelipeHurtado-Ferro1*, Cody S. Szuwalski1,2, Juan L. Valero3, SeanC.Anderson4, Curry J. Cunningham1, Kelli F. Johnson1, Roberto Licandeo5, Carey R. McGilliard6‡, Cole C. Monnahan7, Melissa L. Muradian7, Kotaro Ono1, Katyana A. Vert-Pre8, Athol R. Whitten1, and Andre E. Punt1 School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Box 355020, Seattle, WA 98195-5020, USA, USA Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-5131, USA Center for the Advancement of Population Assessment Methodology, 8901 La Jolla Shores Drive, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada V5A 1S6 Fisheries Centre, Aquatic Ecosystems Research Laboratory, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4 Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere andOcean, University ofWashington, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NationalMarine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America Quantitative Ecology and Resource Management, University of Washington, Box 352182, Seattle, WA 98195-5020, USA School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Box 110240, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA