Host phylogenetic diversity predicts the global extent and composition of tree pests

Tree pests cause billions of dollars of damage annually; yet, we know little about what limits their regional composition and distribution. Here, we model the co-occurrence of 4510 pests and 981 tree host genera spread across 233 countries. We show the composition of tree pests is primarily driven by the phylogenetic composition of host trees, whereas effects of climate and geography tend to be more minor. Pests that utilise many hosts tend to be more widespread; however, most pests do not fill the geographic range of their hosts-indicating that many pests could expand their extents if able to overcome barriers limiting their current distribution. Our results suggest that the establishment of pests in new regions may be largely dictated by the presence of suitable host trees, but more work is needed to fully understand the influences climate has on the distributions of individual pest species.