Stochastic analysis of future vehicle populations

The model, which is called the Future Automobile Population Stochastic Model (FAPS Model), consists of two major components: (1) Model of new car sales. The model of new car sales is the model of automobile demand developed by Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, revised to incorporate the new vehicle survival model that was developed. (2) A procedure for specifying future planned and unplanned events. This procedure, which specifies the future values of exogenous parameters of the model, incorporates the uncertainty of these parameters into the model. A computer program of the FAPS Model was written and is documented in the report.