Exploring the Relationship between Mumps and Meteorological Factors in Shandong Province, China Based on a Two-Stage Model

Background: Small-scale studies have identified temperature and other meteorological factors as risk factors for human health. However, only a few have quantified the specific impact of meteorological factors on mumps. A quantitative examination of the exposure–response relationship between meteorological factors and mumps is needed to provide new insights for multi-city analysis. Methods: The daily recorded number of mumps cases and meteorological data in 17 cities of Shandong Province from 2009 to 2017 were collected. A two-stage model was built to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps. Results: A total of 104,685 cases of mumps were recorded from 2009 to 2017. After controlling for seasonality and long-term trends, the effect of low temperature on mumps was significant at the provincial level, with a cumulative RR of 1.035 (95%CI: 1.002–1.069) with a 1-day lagged effect. The proportion of primary and middle school students was determined as an effect modifier, which had a significant impact on mumps (Stat = 8.374, p = 0.039). There was heterogeneity in the combined effect of temperature on mumps (Q = 95.447, p = 0.000), and its size was I2 = 49.7%. Conclusions: We have identified a non-linear relationship between mumps and temperature in Shandong Province. In particular, low temperatures could bring more cases of mumps, with certain lagged effects. More public health measures should be taken to reduce the risks when temperatures are low, especially for cities with a high proportion of primary and secondary school students.