Towards an operational framework in forecasting breakthrough innovation: the case of the clean automobile

This paper deals with a framework of the process of innovation that is designed to help build up forecasting scenarios for breakthrough innovations in a mature industry. This framework is based on the previous research on innovation and on an up–to–date literature review of key success factors of innovation. It is applied to the various technological powertrain options faced by the automotive industry owing to the need of reducing fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. It gives an appraisal of the various economic, technological, social and political factors that could heavily influence a particular technology, allowing a tentative scenario for the next 30 years.