Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders

We investigate how giant and supergiant oil and mineral discoveries shape the political fortunes of national leaders using a large dataset of 1255 leaders in 158 countries over the period 1950 to 2010. We depart from the existing literature by using both ‘single risk’ and ‘multiple risk’ discrete time proportional hazard models. We find that mineral discoveries reduce risk for the incumbent in a ‘single risk model’ especially in a non-election year. In contrast oil discoveries reduce risk disproportionately more for the incumbent in countries with weak political institutions. The effects appear to be induced by actual income or rent rather than income expectations. In a ‘multiple risk model’ oil discovery significantly reduces the risk of losing office via military coup while resource (oil and minerals) discovery in general reduces the risk of resignation. Resource discovery does not seem to have any impact on the risk of election loss.