[A Quebec that is aging. Perspectives for the twenty-first century]

The recent prolonged and significant fertility decline experienced in Quebec and in the rich industrial countries as a whole inevitably entails an aging of the population that will continue into the 21st century. Using as the point of departure 3 scenarios of demographic evolution for the period 1980-2051 this article examines some effects of this phenomenon which will profoundly modify Quebec society. Demographic aging from this perspective can be considered fundamentally political because it will affect social relations at various levels such as the place of francophone Quebec within Canada and possible aging of the political authorities. The main sections of the work consider the demographic evolution of Quebec; the political demography of Quebec including fertility decline emigration and linguistic problems the "gerontocratic menace" and fertility decline aging and the sex ratio; the economy of an aging Quebec including the active population the labor market and the dependency burden; aging and public expenditures including income security of the aged delivery of health care costs of short- and longterm hospitalization shelter for the aged the educational system and a consideration of the total expenditures. Special attention is given to the effects of aging on public expenditures in a society in which support for the aged entails an outlay 2-3 times greater than that for younger persons. Beginning with public expenditures incurred for the dependent population in 1978-80 the evolution of such outlays is calculated according to the 3 demographic scenarios and various hypotheses for the 4 key sectors of retirement pensions health care shelter for the elderly and education. The projections are accompanied by a commentary which seeks to avoid predictions of catastrophe in favor of an interpretive essay on aging as a total social phenomenon and which goes beyond a purely demographic discussion.