A bi-level capacity optimization of an isolated microgrid with load demand management considering load and renewable generation uncertainties

Aiming at capacity optimization of an isolated microgrid, this paper establishes a bi-level capacity optimization model that considers load demand management (LDM) while comprehensively considering load and renewable generation uncertainties. The uncertainties in this paper are brought by the source and load on the same timescale, as well as by the different characteristics of uncertainty presented over different timescales. For long timescales, the problem of source/load random uncertainty is solved using the stochastic network calculus theory to meet the energy balance constraints. For short timescales, we primarily aim to resolve the problem of power balance at the operation level, considering the uncertainty of source/load prediction errors and the impact of LDM. Particularly, by controlling the interruptible and shiftable loads, the LDM can optimize load characteristics, reduce operation costs, and increase system stability. The bi-level optimization model established in this paper is analyzed with regard to energy and power balance constraints, and the proposed mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model is solved by utilizing the CPLEX solver to minimize the investment cost. A typical microgrid, comprising a wind turbine (WT), a photovoltaic panel (PV), a controllable micro generator (CMG), and an energy storage system (ESS), is taken as an example to study capacity optimization problems. The simulation results verify the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed model and method.