Results and application of the National Wildfire Risk Assessment

Spatial wildfire risk assessments that account for both the probability and consequences of wildfire events are becoming an important element of strategic wildland fire and fuels planning (Calkin et al. 2011; Finney 2005; Gilbertson-Day et al. 2017, 2018; Thompson et al. 2013, 2016a). Using a standardized framework (Scott et al. 2013), these assessments can be scaled from local communities up to the continental scale. Inputs, spatial resolution, and methodology considerations change with different assessment scales, as do the types of questions that can be addressed with the results. The Fire Modeling Institute (FMI), a unit of the Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, recently completed analysis for a national-scale risk assessment for all National Forest System (NFS) lands in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). This assessment is known as the National Wildfire Risk Assessment for Forest Service Lands (or NaWRA-FS, for short). We present here some brief results from that analysis as well as intended applications, including a Wildfire Risk Index that the Forest Service plans to use to monitor performance toward the agency’s broad objective of mitigating wildfire risk.