Electricity demand forecasts of Chinese urbanization policy scenarios based on agents response equilibrium model

There is consensus that urbanization contains great potential in domestic demand in China, especially for policy-makers. China's urbanization rate reached to 51.3% in 2011 and urban population outnumbered rural population for the first time. But there is still a long way to go when compared with developed countries. What impact will have on electricity demand in the process of rapid advance of urbanization? In this paper, China's industrial electricity consumption intensity (IECI) and geographic electricity consumption intensity (GECI) are analyzed from 2000 to 2012. Agents Response Equilibrium model (ARE) is applied to simulating the evolution of economic system and labor transfer under the different policy scenarios. This paper simulates the influence of the rural surplus labor force's career choice on the electricity demand in the process of urbanization. It can be showed that choosing rational policy relying on urbanization will be of great significance on economic structure adjustment, energy conservation and emissions reduction.