MERCADO INTERNACIONAL DA SOJA: MODELANDO OS EFEITOS DOS CUSTOS DAS TRANSAÇÕES E DAS BARREIRAS COMERCIAIS

This paper analyzes the main effects of the costs of trade transactions and trade barriers on the international soybean market. A partial equilibrium model formulated as a mixed complementarity problem is used to provide the simulation of alternative scenarios. Three scenarios are defined: in the first, the trade transactions costs are eliminated; in the second, a free trade scenario (no tariff and subsidies); and the third, it is simulated a demand shock. The results show that the elimination of trade transaction costs causes an increase in soybean production in Brazil, Argentina and China and an increase in consumption in the United States, China, UE and the Rest of World. In the free trade scenario, it is observed small changes in terms of production and consumption, reflecting the characteristics of the trade policies adopted by the major producer and consumer countries. The results of the free trade scenario show gains for Brazilian and Argentine producers and present losses for US producers. The demand shock simulation shows that Brazil (exporter) and EU countries (importer) are the only ones that have a greater increase in consumption than in production. Finally, based on the scenarios analyzed, the largest gains for soybean producers are expected for the third scenario, considering the increase in the consumption of soybean and derivatives (meal, oil and biodiesel).