Development of a MetUM (v 11.1) and NEMO (v 3.6) coupled operational forecast model for the Maritime Continent – Part 1: Evaluation of ocean forecasts
2021
Abstract. This article describes the development and ocean forecast
evaluation of an atmosphere–ocean coupled prediction system for the Maritime
Continent (MC) domain, which includes the eastern Indian and western Pacific
oceans. The coupled system comprises regional configurations of the
atmospheric model MetUM and ocean model NEMO at a uniform horizontal
resolution of 4.5 km × 4.5 km, coupled using the OASIS3-MCT libraries. The
coupled model is run as a pre-operational forecast system from 1 to 31 October 2019. Hindcast simulations performed for the period 1 January 2014
to 30 September 2019, using the stand-alone ocean configuration, provided
the initial condition to the coupled ocean model. This paper details the
evaluations of ocean-only model hindcast and 6 d
coupled ocean forecast
simulations. Direct comparison of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea
surface height (SSH) with analysis, as well as in situ observations, is
performed for the ocean-only hindcast evaluation. For the evaluation of
coupled ocean model, comparisons of ocean forecast for different forecast
lead times with SST analysis and in situ observations of SSH, temperature,
and salinity have been performed. Overall, the model forecast deviation of
SST, SSH, and subsurface temperature and salinity fields relative to
observation is within acceptable error limits of operational forecast
models. Typical runtimes of the daily forecast simulations are found to be
suitable for the operational forecast applications.
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