Current and Future Costs for Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Systems in the US Market: Preprint

NREL's Solar Advisor Model (SAM) is employed to estimate the current and future costs for parabolic trough and molten salt power towers in the US market. Future troughs are assumed to achieve higher field temperatures via the successful deployment of low melting-point, molten-salt heat transfer fluids by 2015-2020. Similarly, it is assumed that molten salt power towers are successfully deployed at 100MW scale over the same time period, increasing to 200MW by 2025. The levelized cost of electricity for both technologies is predicted to drop below 11 cents/kWh (assuming a 10% investment tax credit and other financial inputs outlined in the paper), making the technologies competitive in the marketplace as benchmarked by the California MPR. Both technologies can be deployed with large amounts of thermal energy storage, yielding capacity factors as high as 65% while maintaining an optimum LCOE.